Japan Has Decided: Populism and Tariffs; Rice and Russia

Source: Wikimedia Commons

On July 25th, 2025 the Japanese voters decided what vision they wished to see for Japanese politics. Events in both 2024 and 2025 did not leave the incumbent Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in good standing with the voters. First was the kickback scandal which forced Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (2021-2024) to resign and the factions within the LDP to dissolve. Second, rising rice prices came to a head after the 2024 House of Representatives election, with the LDP seen as somewhat responsible. Third, the House of Representatives election in late 2024 left Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (2024-Present) with only a plurality of seats, meaning the LDP was in a minority government with little room for failure. Fourth, the Trump tariff regime that has crippled international trade for many nations has specifically caused concern both for Japan’s farmers and automotive workers. As for the last issue, a survey showed that more than 50% of respondents felt that negotiations had stalled and would not progress.

In the leadup to the election, a wide variety of subjects were tackled by the political parties, particularly social security, US-Japan tariff negotiations, and immigration. The third point became a thorn in the side of the LDP as the Sanseitō managed to run a successful populist platform on anti-immigration sentiment, becoming the second highest polling opposition party on July 14th. Half of the people surveyed on May 12th saw the US-Japan tariff negotiations as not improving anything meaningful, likely leading to less support for the Ishiba administration which chose the relatively unknown Minister in charge of Economic Revitalization Akazawa Ryosei to negotiate with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. These are the primary issues that each party focused on prior to the election. 

Trends before the election were promising for the LDP until they began to lose support in mid-July. Again, the Sanseitō became the second highest polling opposition on July 14th, albeit this was at around 7% compared to the liberal Constitutional Democratic Party’s 8% against the LDP’s 20%. As an example of opposition campaigning, the Innovation Party’s Co-Leader Hirofumi Yoshimura made a wide variety of social media posts criticizing the cost of social insurance premiums (shakai hoken-ryō) and almost always ending with “social insurance premiums are too high!” (shakai hoken-ryō, takaisugiruyo). An interesting aspect to this is that support for the Ishiba cabinet stayed stable while disapproval increased, indicating that this was likely showing increased turnout rather than people moving away from the LDP.

Four days before polling began, news broke that Russia was conducting electoral interference. Many accused the Sanseito of having Russian ties, citing an interview with the Russian-controlled media outlet Sputnik and the emergence of bots promoting particular political parties while intensifying social divides. As immigration was one of the key platforms of the Sanseito’s campaign, with their slogan being “Japanese First”, Russian influence helped promulgate their viewpoint.

On election day, the people chose to keep the LDP/Komeito coalition, albeit with populist reservations. Another aspect of this is that it was a rejection of Ishiba, but this will be covered in detail later on. First, turnout was higher than previous elections which has almost never been a good sign for the LDP. Apathy was one of the strongest aspects of the LDP’s dominance, with greater voter turnout being one of the reasons for the LDP’s 2007 and 2009 losses to the Democratic Party of Japan. Second, the Komeito finally showed major signs of decline, having lost constituency seats in areas considered safe. These two factors combined to allow the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), a populist conservative party, the Sanseito, which will be covered later, and Reiwa, a left-leaning party, to capture not only LDP and Komeito seats but also other established parties’ seats as well. The CDP, the primary left-leaning opposition party, and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) were hit hard by the expansion of populism as well. 

For Ishiba, this was a fatal wound, aggravated by the end of US-Japan tariff talks which resulted in a better than expected result for Japan. The question remains: how long will Ishiba last? Political heavyweights such as Sanae Takaichi and Toshimitsu Motegi have put their hat in the ring for leader and have called for Ishiba to resign, respectively. It is very likely that Ishiba will resign, at the very least before the year comes to a close, but with major events such as the 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development and the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, it is unclear whether his party will allow him to remain as Japan’s representative for these events. If Ishiba is able to hold office until the end of August, he will be able to steer the course of Japan’s memory and reconciliation issue with its neighbor as well as the nation’s policy on official development assistance in Africa.  

Another concern that remains unresolved is the role of foreign influence in Japanese elections. As this was the first ever Japanese election to openly acknowledge the threat of Russian maligned influence on behalf of the Sanseito – albeit unofficially – this raises serious questions of how to ensure that elections are not manipulated by social media, bot accounts impersonating politicians – which the author of this article has received follow requests from – and foreign media – that is unauthorized to have candidates on air. How these issues are handled will be critical for the future of the far right and populist movements within Japan.  

Overall, the election was avictory for populism and Russia, while it was a loss for the Komeito and the establishment parties as a whole. This election has shown that people in Japan wish for change, be it from the left or the right. Reiwa was able to make gains against JCP and CDP leaders, while the DPP and Sanseito took away votes from the right of the LDP and Komeito. Despite their overwhelming right-wing rhetoric, Sanseito’s “Japanese First” slogan resonates with alittle bit less than half of voters, showing their broad appeal across the political spectrum. The populist rhetoric of Sanseito has distracted from their Russian collusion and their proposal for a constitutional amendment that could lead to areturn of imperial rule. While attention has returned to policy items such as the abolition of the provisional gasoline tax, questions still remain about the future of the Sanseito and what harm it could have on Japan. If Japan is unable to address concerns regarding populism and foreign interference, things will become worse for the LDP and other establishment parties rather than a handing of the torch to the opposition for a time.