The Liberal Democratic Party’s Crisis of Long-Term Survival
Source: Wikimedia Commons/ Presidential election speech of the Liberal Democratic Party in Nagano.jpg
On September 2nd, the ruling Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) released their electoral analysis through a committee headed by the Secretary General of the LDP, Hiroshi Moriyama. Moriyama offered his resignation for the results, but this would end up being unnecessary. On September 7th, Prime Minister Ishiba resigned. On October 4th, the LDP chose their next leader, Sanae Takaichi, to both lead the party and to likely lead the nation – barring any opposition coalition between many parties. For these reasons, the LDP must look inward rather than outward in order to understand the flaws that have led to multiple electoral losses and then to reform the party.
First, it is crucial to understand that the LDP is a big tent party that encompasses many varieties of conservatism in Japan. They have been present ever since the founding of the party, allowing for patronage networks that support newcomers on the political scene. They helped to formulate policy, raise funds, and distribute funds. Ever since the 2024 faction-based financial scandal which toppled Kishida and caused the dissolution of most factions, the LDP has lacked internal cohesion and control from above. Without channels to distribute funds, or withhold them, from junior lawmakers, they will not have the same incentives to toe the party line or to listen to senior lawmakers.
Second, the two highest polling candidates were the relative extremes of the party. Starting with Sanae Takaichi, she is a protégé of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and has served as head of various ministries, the most important of which being the Minister in Charge of Economic Security (2022-2023) and the Minister of State for Science and Technology Policy (2022-2023). She advocates for a hard line against China as well as a loose-monetary policy, which means increasing inflation and a continuation of Abenomics. This means that the bureaucracy will likely be against her as she wishes for lots of policy reform. On the other side, there is Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and is currently serving as the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. He has been criticized previously for attempting to solve issues with solutions that have consequences which have not been thought through, specifically regarding the rice price issue. Bureaucrats generally would have likely supported Koizumi as he follows the status quo so long as there is no crisis. Moderates seemed to support Koizumi while politicians more on the right, such as former Prime Minister Taro Aso, supported Takaichi. This showed the split between the right side and the moderate/left sides of the party less than a month before the presidential election.
Third, there appears to be no end in sight for the left-right split of the LDP, especially with intense competition this election. If tensions rise, it is possible that the party could split. Many LDP members stay under the LDP due to either ideological loyalty, internal influence, and/or the previous patronage networks. On top of this, as the LDP has been the main party in power since 1955 – aside from their times in the opposition from 1993-1994 and 2009-2012 – politicians may join in order to gain power. Now with only a plurality in both houses of parliament – albeit not a new phenomenon contrary to CSIS – if there is no internal ideological cohesion, promises of power, or guarantees of support, politicians may defect to rising parties such as the Democratic Party of the People.
Overall, without factions the LDP is unable to control junior lawmakers who may fuel divisions within the party and split it ideologically. If the LDP is not able to institute a new system of internal governance that pleases both junior and senior lawmakers, the party could easily split among ideological or patronage lines based on the old factions. Whileone faction does still remain, this will not be enough to instill confidence in all other lawmakers. If the LDP returns to factions, people may vote the LDP out of office as the 2024 financial scandal heavily implicated the system. For these reasons, the LDP must analyze its own history and create a new system that will assure lawmakers of career progression, political stability, and ideological consistency or else the party will fall.