Sheinbaum’s Challenge: Security, Sovereignty, and Trump’s Shadow
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum after President Donald Trump announced he would not impose the tariffs he threatened on Mexico (2025)
Credit: Eneas De Troya / Wikimedia Commons
Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo made history when she assumed the presidency of Mexico last year, becoming the nation’s first female leader. She inherited a country grappling with volatile security challenges and navigating an increasingly complex relationship with the United States. U.S.-Mexico relations hang precariously, strained by surging cartel violence, competing national interests, and mounting tensions over sovereignty, trade, and border enforcement.
One of her challenges arises from a controversial strategy to fight cartel violence deployed by her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO. His “abrazos, no balazos” (or “hugs, not bullets”) approach aimed to address violence through three key steps: implementing poverty-alleviation programs, reforming sentencing guidelines for drug traffickers, and creating a new, militarized police force specifically built to fight organized crime. Although AMLO’s approach aimed to use social investment to tackle the root cause of violence, the strategy has been widely regarded as a failure. Sheinbaum, as a fellow member of AMLO’s dominant Morena party, must toe the difficult line of either revising or reinforcing this legacy program while balancing growing pressures from the Trump administration.
Since taking office in October, Sheinbaum’s fresh anti-cartel policies have garnered support on both sides of the border. Maintaining a high approval rating at 85%, Sheinbaum has been working to strengthen and unify Mexico’s intelligence apparatus. Mexico’s existing decentralized federalist system creates fragmented intelligence sharing and response coordination across states, allowing for cartels to exploit gaps in governance, evade punishment, and maintain strongholds. Recognizing this challenge, Sheinbaum’s administration is prioritizing passing legislation to centralize intelligence collection and analysis to create a more coherent and unified strategy against organized crime.
A key test of Sheinbaum’s presidency will be her approach towards the fentanyl crisis—a top concern for American policymakers. Sheinbaum has signaled a greater willingness to work with Washington than previous administrations. For instance, her administration quietly authorized American drone surveillance over northern Mexico last February, with the mission of locating and destroying fentanyl production laboratories. This strategic choice demonstrates a clear shift in Mexico’s strategy toward U.S. cooperation, favoring collaboration and joint operations.
Publicly, Sheinbaum has maintained a firm stance on national sovereignty, leveraging positive outcomes to demonstrate Mexico’s growing strength as a direct result of her domestic policies. For example, her administration touted a 40% reduction in fentanyl trafficking levels since Trump took office last January—crafting a narrative of early success. Nevertheless, American lawmakers remain unconvinced. In May, Sheinbaum forcefully rejected Trump’s proposal to send U.S. troops into Mexico to combat high fentanyl trafficking into the United States. Trump loudly proclaimed that this rejection stemmed from Sheinbaum’s fear of the cartels and weak leadership, going so far as to claim Sheinbaum “...is so afraid of the cartels that she can’t even think straight.” These escalating tensions highlight Sheinbaum’s challenge to deliver domestic security successes while also maintaining positive foreign relations—a balance that will shape the legacy of her presidency.
While Sheinbaum navigates these security cooperation challenges, immigration has presented itself as another point of friction, especially following President Trump’s deployment of the National Guard in Los Angeles. The city, which contains the highest Hispanic population in the United States, has been a target for the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown. Since the deployment, there have been 850 recorded detainments of migrants across Los Angeles. These mass arrests and raids have sparked protests across the country, drawing international media attention and political backlash.
Earlier this month, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem accused President Sheinbaum of “encouraging violent protests.” Sheinbaum quickly denied this accusation, calling it “absolutely false,” while issuing a public statement urging “the Mexican community to act in a peaceful manner.” This political clash indicates the fragile nature and growing tensions between the two countries. For Sheinbaum, defending Mexican citizens abroad without inflaming relations with the U.S. is another challenge, particularly as American political rhetoric and policy action on migration continues to be fueled by violence.
Beyond security and migration, economic tensions are placing additional strain on U.S.-Mexico relations. Earlier this year, the U.S. initiated a 25% tariff on Mexican goods that do not fall under the requirements of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—affecting nearly half of Mexican exports to the United States. The tariff serves as economic pressure to push Mexico to address its expansive drug trafficking networks and high levels of illegal immigration into the United States.
Further, as part of President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” remittances sent between the United States and Mexico would be subject to a 3.5% tax. Sheinbaum has forcefully denounced this as “unacceptable.” As roughly 80% of Mexican exports are to the United States and remittances contribute significantly to the income of millions of Mexican nationals, the economic stakes for Mexico are significant. Once again, Sheinbaum faces the challenge of protecting Mexico’s economic interests while preserving strong diplomatic relations with the United States and avoiding a trade war that would be devastating for both economies.
Despite these growing tensions, the US-Mexico relationship remains defined by a strong interdependence. Shared interests in security, immigration, and trade make it that political rifts carry significant consequences for both nations. Ultimately, Sheinbaum must navigate a complex diplomatic landscape shaped both by a new era of American politics and her own national priorities. Her choices—both in policy and presentation—are essential to maintain domestic stability and sovereignty while ensuring Mexico doesn’t isolate its most important diplomatic and economic partner.