Mexico’s Power Grid Is a Soft Target in a New Era of Cartel Terrorism

Source: Wikimedia Commons/ United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas participates in virtual bilateral Meeting with General Luis Cresencio of Mexico and US Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar on December 4, 2023

Introduction

Mexico’s energy grid isn’t just outdated—it’s a national security liability. For years, Mexican politicians have preached “energy sovereignty,” but beneath the rhetoric lies a fragile system stretched to its limits. With cartel violence escalating and U.S. attention once again shifting southward, Mexico’s electrical grid may soon become ground zero in a renewed asymmetric war.

Mexico’s Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) still controls most of the country's power distribution. But control has not meant resilience. Between 2021 and 2022, Mexico’s transmission network grew by just 0.12%, even as demand surged. The country has over 14,000 substations, many of them aging, outdated, and unable to handle peak loads. When Winter Storm Uri swept in from Texas in 2021, blackouts spread across northern Mexico, revealing just how easily the system could collapse under stress.

Now imagine if that collapse was triggered not by a weather event but by a cartel: blown transformers, firebombed substations, sniper fire targeting repair crews. The damage would be devastating and sustained.

A Playbook Already Written

Now, cartels’ work extends well beyond drugs. They’re trafficking in terror, with infrastructure being an obvious pressure point. On October 28, 2013, a coordinated attack by cartel forces exposed one of Mexico’s most critical national vulnerabilities: its energy infrastructure. Armed men stormed multiple distribution stations across the state of Michoacán with startling ease, leaving tens of thousands of residents in cities and towns without power. With attackers needing little effort or resources to cripple essential infrastructure, the message was clear: organized crime groups not only possess the capability to disrupt civilian life but are also willing to weaponize that capability to send a message of dominance and intimidation. Observers at the time rightfully called it what it was: an act of terrorism.

History has shown how vulnerable power systems can become targets in modern conflicts. In Iraq, U.S. airstrikes took out Baghdad’s electrical grid to disable command structures. In Ukraine, Russian drones have bombarded substations to erode civilian morale. Latin America is no exception. Between 1990 and 2014, over 3,000 attacks in Latin America targeted critical energy infrastructure—many by insurgent, cartel and terror groups. Their favorite target? Oil pipelines. The goal was simple: choke the state’s revenue and shake public trust. Cartel attacks on pipelines have already occurred in Mexico, particularly in fuel-rich states like Guanajuato and Hidalgo. As private and foreign investment grows in the Mexican energy market, so too does the risk of violent disruption.

Shared Grid, Shared Risk

Why should the U.S. care? Because Mexico’s grid isn’t just Mexico’s problem. Roughly 60% of Mexico’s natural gas comes from the United States—mostly from Texas. It powers electricity generation across the country, especially in the north, where U.S.-Mexico energy ties run deep. Any attack on Mexico’s transmission system wouldn’t just trigger blackouts south of the border. It could also threaten U.S. exports, hike gas prices, and destabilize regional markets.

In an era where the U.S. is already rethinking its relationship with Mexico amid rising cartel violence, grid failure could be a tipping point. Any significant disruption would almost certainly demand a U.S. response whether in the form of aid, logistical support, or more direct involvement. At a minimum, an attack on Mexico’s grid would quickly escalate into a binational crisis.

What Can Be Done?

The time to act is now before a crisis unfolds. The most urgent need is physical fortification of Mexico’s most vulnerable energy nodes: concrete barriers around substations, hardening of transformers and armed security presence where risk is highest. These aren’t expensive ideas—they’re basic defensive measures. And we’ve seen them work.

In Ukraine, engineers have responded to Russian attacks by wrapping substations with gabions (wire cages filled with stones), and even moving vital components underground. These relatively low-cost solutions have helped protect power infrastructure during wartime. There’s no reason Mexico can’t adopt similar models, especially in high-risk cartel regions.

But defense is only one half of the solution, as coordination matters too. The U.S. and Mexico should immediately form a permanent joint task force on energy resilience under the High-Level Economic Dialogue. This unit should expand black-start capabilities (sections of a grid to restart itself without relying on external power), sabotage-response simulations, and shared cyber-defense strategies to protect digital infrastructure. These are tangible steps that go beyond political gestures—they save time and lives in a crisis.

Financing the Fix

None of this will come cheap. Experts estimate that Mexico needs $38 billion to modernize its grid. But current CFE funding stands at roughly $29 million, which is nowhere near enough. That’s where creative U.S.-Mexico cooperation comes in.

Instead of direct aid, Washington can help Mexico secure low-interest loans through the North American Development Bank (NADBank).The bank already finances energy efficiency projects but currently excludes transmission infrastructure. That must change. If NADBank’s Green Loan Program expands eligibility, it could funnel capital into modernizing Mexico’s grid without sending U.S. taxpayer checks across the border.

Such reforms would benefit both sides: strengthening Mexican infrastructure while giving U.S. firms an opportunity to participate through equipment contracts, inspections, and engineering services. It’s a smart geopolitical investment with real returns.

Don’t Wait for the Crisis

We often think of terrorism as bombs in marketplaces or assassinations of public officials. But in the 21st century, collapsing an energy grid can do just as much damage. Cartels have the manpower, firepower, and strategic understanding to strike at Mexico’s weakest link. It’s no longer a question of “if”—but when. Mexico and the U.S. must act now: fortify infrastructure, coordinate emergency planning and reform financing tools. Every delay increases the likelihood that Mexico’s energy grid becomes the next front in a war we’ve seen before.